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MARCH 2021 Feature

3/3/2021

7 Comments

 
​Disclaimer: Please research these stocks yourself to get a full, confident understanding before investing! These features are meant for informational purposes, and are not a promise of profit or an endorsement.
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General Info
  • Asset Class: Cryptocurrency
  • Market Cap: $943 billion (as of 02/24/2021)
  • 1 Year Return: 442.3%
  • Detailed Description: Simply put, cryptocurrencies are currencies managed solely on a digital platform and are not controlled by a centralized authority. Most currencies that we use today such as the US dollar are called fiat currencies, which are government-issued currencies that are not backed by a commodity such as gold. The decentralized nature of cryptocurrencies allows for many benefits over fiat currencies such as less manipulation and the elimination of middle third parties that handle our money. This is especially relevant today, as recent events have shown us exactly how flawed our current economic system is and how the current “free market” is in reality heavily manipulated and controlled by large institutions. 

    In late January and early February this year, a large group of small investors on Reddit had decided to collectively buy shares of GameStop, AMC, and other failing companies to essentially force large institutions who were shorting those companies to take a heavy loss (for more information on what happened watch Andrei Jikh’s video listed below). However, trading platforms such as Robinhood and TD Ameritrade restricted investors from purchasing those stocks, essentially protecting those large institutions from losing more money. But while everyone blamed the trading platforms for siding with the large institutions, the problem wasn’t entirely the trading platforms. Instead, there were two major problems that had to do with how money is transferred and how rich institutions have too much power in our current economic system. 

    When money is transferred, it might seem instantaneous to the parties taking part in the transaction, but in reality there is a middle party that handles the money and makes sure both parties meet the requirements of the agreement. In the case of the stock market, trading platforms simply route users’ trades to a market maker, which is a company that actually holds the stocks. However, since money can take several days to actually transfer, there is a financial institution called a clearinghouse that facilitates the exchange of money between the trading platforms and the market makers. Clearinghouses require trading platforms to put a deposit or a collateral which has a value that is based on the volatility of the customers’ trades. In this recent case, since the volatility of GameStop, AMC, and the other stocks these customers were trying to buy was too high, the clearinghouses required ridiculously high collaterals from the trading platforms which didn’t make sense for the trading platforms to risk. 

    However, not only did the systemic problems of buying stocks get in the way of the Reddit group’s goal of taking down the rich institutions, the rich institutions also played a role in protecting themselves. As many might not know, some rich institutions are the market makers. Market makers gain huge profit from brokering the buying and selling of stocks and they themselves also invest in the stock market. Recently, market makers such as Citadel heavily shorted GameStop stocks, so when too many people started buying GameStop stocks, they were losing too much money and it was speculated (though later publicly refuted by the market makers) that they influenced trading platforms to restrict the trading of those stocks. Regardless of what they actually did, the fact that market makers and other large financial institutions control so much wealth and manage the purchasing and selling of stocks signals too much consolidation of power. Large institutions gathering together, discussing opinions, and making large decisions which in turn influence the price of stocks resulting in huge profit is something that has been happening since the beginning of the stock market. Now when a group of small investors do the same by discussing opinions and making decisions together, large institutions including federal institutions suddenly label these actions as price manipulation and actions that are entirely too risky for the markets. 

    Today, it takes less time for Amazon to deliver toothpaste than for money to fully transfer. And with large institutions controlling massive wealth, there is no free market. Cryptocurrencies solve both of these problems by eliminating the need for a middle third party by utilizing a decentralized network. In 2009, the pseudonymous creator Satoshi Nakamoto pioneered Bitcoin, which started the cryptocurrency revolution. 

    So how does Bitcoin work? Bitcoin is a currency that relies on a network of computers that verify transactions by solving extremely complex math problems. That might sound confusing so lets visualize:

    Imagine there are a group of friends that is trying to figure out how much money each person owes each other. So for example, one day Sam pays Tom 10 dollars and Bob pays Sam 5 dollars. Then the next day Tom pays Sam 5 dollars and Bob also pays Sam 5 dollars and so on. As the list of transactions gets longer, it gets harder for all the friends to keep track of who owes what. On the Bitcoin network, transactions like these are recorded on a public list or a ledger that is encrypted by a decentralized network of computers. These computers are competing to find a specific unique key to encrypt each set of new transactions (also known as a block) that is posted on the public ledger. Everyone has a digital wallet with a specific amount of Bitcoin and the network ensures the precise transfer of Bitcoin in and out of these digital wallets. The exact mechanics of how Bitcoin actually works is incredibly complex and we recommend watching the video linked below to fully understand it.

    While there are several different types of cryptocurrencies that operate in a similar way to Bitcoin, Bitcoin not only is the most valuable cryptocurrency, but it also has the most computing power in its network.​
Positives
  • Since Bitcoin is decentralized, it is much more difficult to be manipulated and fully regulated than a typical fiat currency
  • The use of the blockchain ensures that transactions on the Bitcoin network are extremely secure
  • The longer Bitcoin has value and stays around the more likely it is to be adopted
    Bitcoin has been one of the best performing assets over the past ten years
  • Many large companies such as Tesla and Paypal are investing in Bitcoin and converting their platforms to be compatible with Bitcoin which further supports the case that Bitcoin is here to stay
  • Younger generations are more comfortable with understanding the technology behind Bitcoin and accepting it into our rapidly digitizing world
  • Bitcoin is one of the most globally accessible currencies due to its decentralized nature
  • Scarcity aspect of Bitcoin makes it a perfect store value asset
  • Since the federal bank instituted hyperinflationary measures to keep the economy afloat during the coronavirus crisis, investors see Bitcoin as a perfect hedge against inflation due to its scarce nature
  • Since Bitcoin was the first created cryptocurrency and is currently the most valuable cryptocurrency, there is the most computing power operating on its network
  • So far, Bitcoin has proven to be a very reliable and secure currency
  • Bitcoin eliminates the need for middle parties such as banks to handle our money which makes money flow more transparent
Negatives
  • While other cryptocurrencies can transfer in seconds, Bitcoin takes minutes to transfer which makes it imperfect as a currency
  • Bitcoin’s extreme volatility also makes it a difficult currency to work with
  • Cryptocurrencies have only been around for a short time which means there are still several unknowns, and therefore Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are still highly speculative and risky
  • There is still the possibility for tough local regulation on cryptocurrencies which could negatively impact the value of them
  • There is also the possibility of error or the invention of supercomputing (which would essentially allow for the manipulation of cryptocurrencies) which would crush cryptocurrencies
  • Increased use of Bitcoin and insufficient computing power would result in long transaction times and high fees
  • Many people, especially older generations, still don’t understand it
  • Using Bitcoin requires technology which makes it less accessible to everyone
  • Bitcoin hasn’t been fully adopted and embraced yet which means its value is more prone to investor sentiment
  • Many people argue that unlike gold and other store value assets, Bitcoin has no intrinsic value (although this is debatable)
  • High learning curve to use and store Bitcoin
Outlook (Buy)
  • Any investor looking to buy Bitcoin first needs to understand that they could lose their entire investment. Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in general are still highly speculative assets, and it is extremely risky for an investor to invest more than they are willing to lose into Bitcoin. That being said, Bitcoin has been one of the best performing assets in the past ten years, and its incredible technology and economic implications really mean that Bitcoin has only two possible outcomes: it goes to zero or it goes to the moon. In a recent podcast with Bitcoin bull Anthony Pompliano, former hedge fund manager Raoul Pal said he would advise someone that has a steady income and has saved up 100,000 dollars to invest half of it into Bitcoin. If that person loses that 50,000 dollars it sucks. It feels bad, but it’s not life ending. That person would still have enough to survive. But if that 50,000 dollars turns into 500,000 or 5,000,000 dollars, it’s life changing. We highly advise investors to understand how Bitcoin works at a deeper level and its economic implications especially in today’s world, but it doesn’t hurt to allocate one percent of your portfolio to Bitcoin and join in on the cryptocurrency revolution.
Check Out:
  • Andrei Jikh’s video about the GameStop saga: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=POgO3ys1CJ0&ab_channel=AndreiJikh
  • Bitcoin explained:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bBC-nXj3Ng4&ab_channel=3Blue1Brown

Written by: Grant Park
7 Comments

FEBruary 2021 Feature

2/4/2021

0 Comments

 
Disclaimer: Please research these stocks yourself to get a full, confident understanding before investing! These features are meant for informational purposes, and are not a promise of profit or an endorsement.
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​General Info
  • Sector/Industry: Consumer Defensive — Discount Stores/Retail
  • Forward PE: 37.43 (Industry Median: 17.38)
  • PE: 37.99 (Industry Median: 18.43)
  • Net Profit Margins: 2.5% (Industry Median: 1.55%)
  • Price/Book: 11.07 (Industry Median: 1.82)
  • Return on Equity: 26.23% (Industry Median: 8.04%)
  • Dividend Yield: 0.74 (Industry Median: 1.91)
  • Revenue CAGR: 8.93%
  • Income CAGR: 14.31%
  • Currently sitting at approximately $370 share price; sits slightly below the 50 but above the 200 day moving average
  • Basic Description: Costco Wholesale Corporation engages in the operation of membership warehouses in the United States, Puerto Rico, Canada, the United Kingdom, Mexico, Japan, Korea, Australia, Spain, France, Iceland, China, and Taiwan. It offers branded and private-label products in a range of merchandise categories. The company provides dry and packaged foods, and groceries; snack foods, candies, alcoholic and nonalcoholic beverages, and cleaning supplies; appliances, electronics, health and beauty aids, hardware, and garden and patio products; meat, bakery, and deli products, as well as produce; and apparel and small appliances. It also operates pharmacies, optical dispensing centers, food courts, and hearing-aid centers, as well as 615 gas stations; and offers business delivery, travel, same-day grocery, and various other services online in various countries. As of October 07, 2020, the company operated 796 warehouses, including 552 in the United States and Puerto Rico, 102 in Canada, 39 in Mexico, 29 in the United Kingdom, 27 in Japan, 16 in South Korea, 13 in Taiwan, 12 in Australia, 3 in Spain, 1 in Iceland, 1 in France, and 1 in China. It also operates e-commerce websites in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Mexico, South Korea, Taiwan, Japan, and Australia.
Positives
  • Unlike many other brick-and-mortar retailers, Costco specializes in offering membership for most their offered products, locking in customers 
  • Boasts high membership retention (around 90%) and membership grows every quarter, most recently reaching more than 107 million cardholders
  • Similarly, customers tend to stick with Costco, their reputation and brand name is valuable because of their quality offerings, generous return and cash back policies, and discount prices
  • Opened up 8 units/warehouse stores in Q1 2021 and plans to open up 20-22 for the 2021 year
  • Continues to build on its availability during COVID and its offerings of much of the household items needed by customers, reported 17% comparable stores growth (this means how much existing stores grew their revenue)
  • Management employs the use of occasional special dividends paid out to shareholders (i.e. $10 per share every few years) which can be quite attractive for long term Costco investors
  • E-commerce continues to demonstrate relatively encouraging growth, most recently posting 86% year-over-year growth in Q1 2021
  • Recent acquisition of Innovel, a logistics company specializing in “final-mile” delivery services and handling big, bulky products, will help Costco ship faster and support sales of a larger variety of products
  • Costco’s multitude of locations, customer service, store experience, and popularity gives it a fairly recognizable advantage ahead of its direct competitors: BJ’s Wholesale & Walmart’s Sam’s Club
  • Variety of product and services, from the $1.50 hot dog & soda combo to the cheaper gas to its Kirkland-branded goods, Costco has pushed to involve itself in various areas
  • In its stores, Costco’s lack of store signs forces customers to wander around more and buy more along the way
  • Costco also employs the strategy to lower the costs of relatively popular items to get customers in the door like chicken but is able to sell everything in bulk and get customers to buy more expensive items along the way
  • Additionally, Costco’s great treatment of employees is well-documented by pay and benefits, incentivizing excellent customer service and attracting motivated employees
  • Costco has great growth prospects outside the US to execute upon, most recently Costco’s first store in China was met with excitement
  • Partnership with Instacart allow for e-commerce functions to perform better
Negatives
  • Costco’s dependence on brick-and-mortar operations to increase sales as customers walk around their store and buy random things with high margins can be challenged as e-commerce continues to dominate 
  • Costco’s late entrance into e-commerce currently only attracts customers that are already members, they are still catching up to others (i.e. Amazon, Walmart, Target) and also don’t offer helpful services like curbside pickup because of their belief in brick and mortar 
  • Costco’s COVID-related growth where customers tended to purchase and hoard items to a certain extent is likely not sustainable and can affect sales in certain categories
  • Dependence on international expansion for growth will be a risky play for Costco, and it will be difficult for Costco to grow inside the US given its current dominance in its space
  • Areas outside of Costco’s core business seem unlikely to be explored by management and interesting growth avenues are a bit difficult to imagine over the long term
  • E-commerce makes up just 7% of Costco’s sales, the adaptability to e-commerce (if trends continue) could be concerning
  • Fastly growing competitors such as BJ’s Wholesale present respectable challenges especially as Costco decreases its store expansion
  • Premium wage costs paid out during COVID may stick around even after the pandemic and concerns with employees contracting COVID are worrisome
Outlook (Buy)
  • We are bullish on Costco’s fundamental business philosophies geared towards the interests of customers and belief in its brick-and-mortar stores over the long-term. In addition, their ability to continually offer valuable products while maintaining solid profits is a testament to their business model’s unique success and place in the retail space. We don’t believe that other competitors will be able to take away significant market share in the foreseeable future and are encouraged by Costco’s potential to expand internationally. In terms of e-commerce, we believe that Costco’s rapidly increasing support for online shopping will be satisfactory for most customers but the majority of their business should and will continue to come from strong brick-and-mortar store performance. 
Check Out:
  • Understand the headwinds generated by lower gas demand for Costco’s reported growth
  • 10-K (2019) and 10-Q (Q1 2021)
  • Most recent earnings call transcript (Q1 2021)
  • Familiarize oneself with Costco’s competitors in Walmart-owned Sam’s Club and BJ Wholesale
  • Analyze acquisitions and partnerships (Innovel, Instacart) and their ability to generate profit over the long-term or increase innovation within Costco’s e-commerce platform
  • Look into COVID-related wage premiums and the effect of infection among employees
  • Examine management and board of directors track records
  • Map out Costco international and domestic store expansion potential and plans
0 Comments

JANUARY 2021 Feature

1/2/2021

0 Comments

 
​Disclaimer: Please research these stocks yourself to get a full, confident understanding before investing! These features are merely a recommendation, not a promise of profit or an endorsement.
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General Info
  • Sector/Industry: Technology — Software 
  • Revenue Growth (1 yr): 42.3%
  • Currently sitting at approximately $150 share price; sits quite a bit above the 50 and 200 day moving average of $130 and $111 respectively 
  • Because Unity isn’t profitable, many of the valuation metrics we like to compare with industry medians aren’t as relevant; while you should do your own research into valuation, an unprofitable growth company in tech like Unity isn’t a value company for a reason
  • Also, we are not including CAGR metrics because Unity is a relatively new public company and only has reported on 2018 at its latest
  • Basic Description: Unity Software Inc. provides software solutions. The Company offers graphic tools to create, run, and monetize real-time 2D and 3D content for mobile phones, tablets, PCs, consoles, and augmented and virtual reality devices. Unity Software serves customers worldwide. Specifically, it offers both create solutions which is a subscription software service that allows creators to develop their software and operate solutions which is software that helps creators monetize their content through in-game purchases and ads.  
Positives
  • Unity is the industry standard video game (as well as other forms of content) creation tool, it’s estimated that in 2019, 53% of the top 1,000 mobile games on the Apple App Store and Google Play and over 50% of such mobile games, PC games and console games combined were made with Unity
  • Unity’s global reach is immense and is an excellent play into the growth of the gaming industry and its increasing popularity along with the promise of real-time 3D, VR, and AR content
  • Typically without Unity, developers will have to create their own game engine; this is often a much more time-consuming, bug-filled, and expensive process
  • Unity attracts much of its consumers by offering free versions of its software and only charges developers once a revenue threshold is met
  • Extremely popular games from Among Us to Fall Guys to Hollow Knight to Bloons TD 6 have been created with Unity
  • Unity has a extremely sticky customer base, it is highly unlikely for a game to switch its game engine in the middle of production and even more difficult once it has been released
  • Posted Q3 year-over-year revenue growth of 53%, 2.5 billion monthly active users and expects full year growth of 39-40%
  • Continues to build new tools and attempt expansion beyond gaming market that makes up most of Unity’s revenue (i.e. expansion to architecture, engineering, industrials, entertainment — typically any industry with potential to use 3D models)
  • With COVID tailwinds, the Operate side of Unity’s business flourished as more people spent more time on gaming and more monetization occurred as a result
  • Game engine and monetization platforms offered by Unity are difficult to create and attract users to, it will be difficult for most companies to enter the space
  • Unity believes in a vision of 3D content, in social media, high-level education, in movies and entertainment and desires to build to support that possibility for the future
  • Recent partnership with Snap is an interesting development to pay attention to
Negatives
  • Recent gains in Q3 have been largely propelled by the Operate side of Unity due to COVID and stay-at-home orders that allowed more gaming to occur; once the pandemic moves on (hopefully), these tailwinds may disappear and hurt the growth potential 
  • Unity already dominates the game development market, with its only competitor being Epic Games’s Unreal Engine that is privately owned but backed by Tencent, it can not only struggle holding its market share but also struggle growing any further in this area
  • Unity still has not made extremely encouraging growth into areas beyond gaming, it’s non-gaming customers hover around consisting 8% of the business
  • Unity’s operating margin sits at -38%, it is quite negative and it will take quite a while for the business to be profitable, it is still losing quite a lot of money and with more R&D and investment into itself, there is plenty of risk associated
  • Since its IPO, Unity has exploded up around 104% and its share price trades at quite a premium
  • Apple’s new iOS 14 update, which will require apps to request permission to collect data for targeted ads, may have a detrimental effect on the Operate business
Outlook (Hold)
  • If you currently own the stock, we believe this stock has enough upside and growth potential that it can be an excellent long-term investment. However, we could not recommend this investment at a buy because of its valuation and uncertainties with how the business will continue to expand over the long-term. If you do your own additional research and want to buy, we would recommend purchasing a relatively small position. We like Unity’s business model but cannot put our full confidence into the long-term potential and earning upside of the high valuation. Additionally, there are many other stocks that interest us.
Check Out:
  • 10-Q (Q3 2020)
  • Most recent earnings call transcript (Q3 2020)
  • Familiarize oneself with Unity’s competitor in Epic Games and its Unreal Engine software services
  • Analyze acquisitions and partnerships (Snapchat, RestAR, MLAPI) and their ability to generate profit over the long-term or increase innovation within Unity’s current software 
  • Look into regulatory changes like Apple’s iOS 14 update taking place in 2021
  • Examine management and board of directors track record
0 Comments

December 2020 FEATURE

12/9/2020

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​Disclaimer: Please research these stocks yourself to get a full, confident understanding before investing! These features are merely a recommendation, not a promise of profit or an endorsement.
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General Info
  • Sector/Industry: Financial Services — Credit Services
  • Forward PE: 48.08 (Industry Median: 13.33)
  • PE: 80.96 (Industry Median: 10.63)
  • Net Profit Margins: 15.48% (Industry Median: 12.06%)
  • Price/Book: 13.81 (Industry Median: 0.82)
  • Return on Equity: 18.38% (Industry Median: 4.75%)
  • Revenue CAGR: 17.91%
  • Income CAGR: 20.63%
  • Currently sitting at approximately $220 share price; sits fairly above the 50 and 200 day moving average
  • Basic Description: PayPal Holdings, Inc. engages in the development of technology platforms for digital payments. Its solutions include PayPal, PayPal Credit, Braintree, Venmo, Xoom, and Paydiant products. The firm manages a two-sided global technology platform that links customers to facilitate the processing of payment transactions. It allows its customers to use their account for both purchase and paying for goods, as well as to transfer and withdraw funds. The firm also enables consumers to exchange funds with merchants using funding sources, which include bank account, PayPal account balance, PayPal Credit account, credit and debit card or other stored value products. It offers consumers person-to-person payment solutions through its PayPal Website and mobile application, Venmo and Xoom. The company was founded in December 1998 and is headquartered in San Jose, CA.
Positives
  • Brings exposure to increases in the digitalization of the global economy and use of digital currencies and payment methods
  • Venmo along with Paypal’s other services capture large market share for digital payments and transfers which are increasingly used 
  • Paypal continuously expands its daily active accounts, just recently by 32% year-over-year last quarter along with adding on merchants that accept Paypal for purchases
  • Paypal also recently has entered the cryptocurrency space, enabling users to buy and sell cryptocurrency
  • Extremely strong revenue and income growth especially due to transaction revenue growing 29% despite decreasing travel and event volume
  • Expanding QR code solutions to major retailers and shows promise with increasing accommodation for Paypal, anticipates over 500,000 small and micro merchants
  • COVID’s tailwind of decreasing use of cash and increasing use of digital wallets has greatly pushed Paypal’s importance among customers
  • Venmo’s growth and increasing monetization potential is exciting especially given the amount of users they have captured
  • Opportunity to model after Afterpay/Affirm and succeed with buy now/pay later system with Pay in 4 that allows Paypal to charge higher merchant processing fees and gives customers options to pay over time in segmented amounts
  • Strong brand and expertise within payment solutions and e-commerce will allow Paypal to push within new markets or push out new services that are likely to succeed and grow new users while keeping old users loyal 
  • If the company can overcome regulatory challenges, the opportunity to implement Paypal internationally especially within China can bring tremendous growth
  • Acquisitions such as iZettle incorporate well into Paypal’s business and extends growth opportunities overseas, for example iZettle offers point-of-sale systems in Europe 
Negatives
  • Strong performance by company has led to tremendous growth in the stock price, investors must examine the valuation and decide whether that might impact their decision
  • Many competitors (i.e. Square, Apple Pay, Google Pay) competing within the digital payments market that present a challenge for Paypal
  • Travel, events, and other related COVID headwinds may continue to persist and present challenges for Paypal’s growth
  • Ebay’s move away from Paypal’s system has accelerated faster than expected and decreases future revenue possibilities 
  • International expansion can prove difficult especially given the developed presence of other brands and systems (i.e. AliPay in China), Paypal must focus on playing to their advantage of appealing to cross-border e-commerce or overseas travel
  • Acquisitions following Ebay’s 2015 exit from Paypal may not perform well enough to justify recent stock performance especially with ramping competition within fintech
  • Potential new entrants into fintech, from banks turning more commercial to Amazon disrupting another space to international companies expanding globally, pose a danger to the space over the long term
Outlook (Buy)
  • From a long-term investor perspective, we are quite wary of Paypal’s competitors (both current and potential). However, the management has done an excellent job executing to expand the business. From making Venmo more profitable to acquiring iZettle to investing in PineLabs (which sells point-of-sale systems in India), Paypal makes a great case for why its valuation is so high, and over the long run, we believe that the stock will continue to outperform its competitors and expand along with fintech and e-commerce. ​​
Check Out:
  • Annual Report (2019) and 10-Q (Q3 2020)
  • Most recent earnings call transcript (Q3 2020)
  • Familiarize oneself with Paypal’s competitors within point-of-sale and online transactions (i.e. Square)
  • Analyze acquisitions (Honey, Venmo, Braintree, Xoom, iZettle, HyperWallet) and their ability to generate profit over the long-term — keep in mind services like Venmo are not profitable yet but is expected to turn a profit in 2022
  • Examine management and board of directors track record
0 Comments

JANUARY 2020 Feature

1/31/2020

0 Comments

 
Disclaimer: Please research these stocks yourself to get a full, confident understanding before investing! These features are merely a recommendation, not a promise of profit or an endorsement.
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General Info
  • Sector/Industry: Communication Services — Entertainment
  • Forward PE: 22.53 (Industry Median: 14.07)
  • PE: 20.84 (Industry Median: 18)
  • Net Profit Margins: 19.02% (Industry Median: 2.19%)
  • Price/Book: 2.8 (Industry Median: 1.51)
  • Return on Equity: 18.92% (Industry Median: 3.44%)
  • Revenue CAGR: 7.74%
  • Income CAGR: 5.59%
  • Currently sitting at approximately $140 share price; sits slightly below the 50 and 200 day moving average
  • Basic Description: The Walt Disney Company operates to provide worldwide entertainment with a diverse product/service line, ranging from TV (ABC, ESPN, Disney, FX, Nat Geo, etc.), Disney Parks (Disneyland, World Resort, Shanghai Disney Resort, etc.), movies/motion pictures (20th Century Fox, Marvel, Lucasfilm, Pixar, etc.), and streaming services (Disney+, Hulu, ESPN+, etc.). It truly is difficult to visualize all the various products and services that are offered by Disney, especially after Disney’s merger with Fox in early 2019.
Positives
  • Recognizable brands and franchises, from the Simpsons, Marvel Superheroes, Star Wars, etc.
  • Appeals directly to a constantly growing demographic of children and young adults, attaches nostalgic, pleasurable memories to characters, TV shows, movies, and experiences that can be repeatedly accessed 
  • Consistent revenue stream, difficult to affect or damage over long-run
  • Business beyond boundaries of Western culture, already has and can be expected to continue entering emerging markets
  • Recently-released (in Nov 12, 2019) Disney+, packaged with Hulu and ESPN+, expected to have added 25-30 million subscribers
  • In 2017, Disney began to transition its focus to direct-to-consumer(DTC) experiences which are different from traditional product/service offers which are usually indirectly provided through a middleman
  • Experiences such as Hulu, Disney+, ESPN+ have performed extremely well
  • For example, ESPN+ (UFC, NFL Primetime, College Sports, domestic/international soccer) itself has 3.5 million paid subscribers
  • Acquisition of 21st Century Fox adds extremely important licensing and IP value as well as incorporation into DTC business (i.e. adding Simpsons episodes to Disney+)
  • Disney+ will spread into Western Europe (UK, France, Germany, Spain, Germany) on March 31st, expected to perform well based on tests in the Netherlands
  • Lion King, Toy Story 4, Aladdin drove up operating income in the past year, as long as Disney continues to push and create interesting movies with its licensed characters, will consistently do well
Negatives
  • Disneyland parks and resorts, especially in China, show concern as they recently shut down due to the spread of coronavirus, directly hitting the revenue line 
  • Last quarter (Q4) and next quarter have shown some instability and weakness due to natural disaster and uncontrollable events
  • TV programming and advertising revenue has been slightly down, Disney notices this weakness and transitioning more to DTC business focus and approach to entertainment
  • Requires constant content updates on Disney+, Hulu to keep users active and pleased, a problem similar with Netflix, can’t expect consistent users with only the Mandalorian
Outlook (Buy)
  • Short-term issues with coronavirus, indices selling off shares because of these fears, buy and hold long-term, reap profits when stocks bounce back eventually
  • Disney allows for long-term continuity and consistent growth
  • Promising turn towards DTC business while maintaining parks and resorts along with cable networking
​Check Out:
  • Annual Report (2019) and 10-Q (Q4 2019)
  • Most recent earnings call transcript (Q4 2019)
  • Pay attention to upcoming Disney earnings (Q1 2020)
  • Familiarize oneself with DTC business, Disney’s competitors such as Netflix
  • Analyze coronavirus impact on the resorts business
  • Determine management competence under CEO Robert Iger
  • Properly model out different potential valuations of DIS (i.e. DCF model, comps)​
0 Comments

DECEMBER 2019 Feature

12/9/2019

0 Comments

 
Disclaimer: Please research these stocks yourself to get a full, confident understanding before investing! These features are merely a recommendation, not a promise of profit or an endorsement.
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General Info
  • Sector/Industry: Industrials — Airlines
  • Forward PE: 7.69 (Industry Median: 14.62)
  • PE: 8.04 (Industry Median: 14.83)
  • Net Profit Margins: 10.12% (Industry Median: 3.84%)
  • Price/Book: 2.45 (Industry Median: 1.14)
  • Return on Equity: 33.8% (Industry Median: 6.97%)
  • Forward Dividend Yield: 2.63%
  • Revenue CAGR: 2.97%
  • Income CAGR: (negative)
  • Currently sitting at approximately $60 share price; sits approximately at the 50 and 200 day moving average
  • Basic Description: Delta Air Lines provides air transportation for passengers and cargo. 
Positives
  • Relatively undervalued based on valuation metrics
  • Resistant to economic fluctuations, airlines will gain a rather consistent revenue/income stream regardless of macro issues
  • Delta is the highest-rated major airline (behind Jetblue, Southwest, and Alaska) due to its amenities and services
  • Delta has become the largest global airline, in both revenue and profits
  • Provides a dividend to investors
  • Loyalty program creates reliable customer base, revenue from this part of the business increased 16% 
  • All areas of business (leisure, corporate, premium products) have solid single-digit growth in revenue
  • Expanding out to India in 2020 for relaunch, expecting continued revenue growth in 2020
  • Consistently repurchases stock
  • Delta intends to allow all flyers to have access to free wi-fi, should incentivize more customers to use Delta
  • Willing to invest money in improving quality of services, seems to want to separate itself from other major airlines
  • International joint ventures invest into airline industry beyond United States
Negatives
  • Cyclical industry with a 30+% ROE indicates that Delta is being propped up, somewhere near the peak of its valuation 
  • Even though other valuation metrics suggest the opposite, Delta might break down in the long run 
  • Delta is unlikely to bring reliable earnings growth, issues with expansion and new/existing competitors taking more market share
  • Decrease in profit while increase in revenue, indicates either management issues, problematic profit margins, extra costs, etc.
Outlook (Hold)
  • One of the better airlines according to customers and attracting consistent revenue despite macroeconomic worries and poor weather conditions
  • However, does that warrant investment?
  • Hold off and compare Delta with its competitors
​Check Out:
  • Annual Report (2019) and 10-Q (Q3 2019)
  • Most recent earnings call transcript (Q3 2019)
  • Further gain an understanding of airline industry and Delta’s competitors (i.e. Southwest, United, Jetblue, American)
  • Analyze Salesforce’s international expansion and especially its recent move into China
  • Determine management competence under Delta's CEO, Ed Bastian; President, Glen Hauenstein; and CFO, Paul Jacobson
  • Properly model out different potential valuations of Delta (i.e. DCF model)
0 Comments

November 2019 Feature

11/27/2019

0 Comments

 
Disclaimer: Please research these stocks yourself to get a full, confident understanding before investing! These features are merely a recommendation, not a promise of profit or an endorsement.
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General Info
  • Sector/Industry: Technology/Software — Applications
  • Forward PE: 53.19 (Industry Median: 25.42)
  • PE: 135.73 (Industry Median: 25.06)
  • Net Profit Margins: 6.45% (Industry Median: 2.52%)
  • Price/Book: 7.33 (Industry Median: 2.81)
  • Return on Equity: 6.13% (Industry Median: 5.26%)
  • Revenue CAGR: 25.83%
  • Income CAGR: 148.58%
  • Currently sitting at approximately $160 share price; sits approximately above the 50 and 200 day moving average
  • Basic Description: Salesforce is a company that focuses on providing an integrated customer relationship management software experience for businesses. Essentially, the software solutions provided by Salesforce aim to connect clients with customers and sustain those connections. Salesforce carries various options/apps (e.g. Sales Cloud, Service Cloud, Marketing and Commerce Cloud) that can be consolidated into their Customer 360 experience that brings all elements of customer relations together for businesses.
Positives
  • Extremely high income growth coupled with consistent double-digit revenue growth
  • Recent acquisitions in Tableau, Salesforce.org, ClickSoftware have generated organic growth and contribute to positive, sustained growth as Salesforce implements into Customer 360 experience
  • Leader in CRM business, leading Customer 360 software solution has generated 4 million sale opportunities and 4.3 million leads
  • AI software (named Einstein) increases profit margins for Salesforce, decreases employees required to solve or attend to more simple CRM problems
  • In Q2, Salesforce expanded Customer 360 to include Salesforce Blockchain, Salesforce Maps, which have been quite effective to pinpoint customers and add the world’s first Blockchain solution for CRM
  • Salesforce is known to be one of the best places to work (92% of employees say Salesforce is a great place to work), adds to employee efficiency and attracts better employees
  • Microsoft, Airbnb, L ‘O’Real, Alibaba are just a few companies that Salesforce has recently developed relationships with in order to improve sales, marketing, or customer service
  • Momentum for Salesforce business in financial services industry (i.e. new relationship with Unicredit in Italy)
  • US federal government has increased its investment in Salesforce, especially for Bureau of Land Management, the USDA and U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development
  • More of a long-term solution for companies, can produce stable income even through economic downturn, especially through product and international diversification
  • Global partner certifications are up 40% year over year
  • Marc Benioff/Keith Block at Co-CEO position have both done relatively solid jobs of steering the company ahead and taking advantage of digital trend
Negatives
  • Highly valued given the current earnings and industry conditions
  • Raises questions of the certainty of growth in stock given the currently high valuations
  • Complex system that begins to discourage small business use, requires high levels of commitment to the software and time to learn how to properly use
  • Lack of innovation and product uniqueness will prove difficult to sustain over years and years of existing and incoming CRM competition
  • Competition from Microsoft and Oracle
  • Near the stock’s 52 week high of $167 per share
Outlook (Hold)
  • Although positives significantly beat out the negatives, the considerable chance that Salesforce is overvalued pushes most risk-averse investors to keep this one on the sidelines
  • Definitely a stock to keep track of and prioritize on watchlist
​Check Out:
  • Annual Report (2019) and 10-Q (Q1 2019)
  • Most recent earnings call transcript (Q2 2019)
  • Become familiar with some of Salesforce’s products 
  • Analyze Salesforce’s international expansion and especially its recent move into China
  • Determine management competence under Co-CEOs, Marc R. Benioff and Keith G. Block
  • Properly model out different potential valuations of Salesforce (i.e. DCF model)
0 Comments

OCTOBER 2019 Feature

9/26/2019

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​Disclaimer: Please research these stocks yourself to get a full, confident understanding before investing! These features are merely a recommendation, not a promise of profit or an endorsement.
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General Info
  • Sector/Industry: Technology/Computer Systems
  • Forward PE: 17.74 (Industry Median: 14.64)
  • PE: 25.71 (Industry Median: 17.61)
  • Net Profit Margins: 9.36% (Industry Median: 3.3%)
  • Price/Book: 5.57 (Industry Median: 1.53)
  • Return on Equity: 23.47% (Industry Median: 6.24%)
  • Revenue CAGR: 11.38%
  • Income CAGR: 29.24%
  • Forward Dividend Yield: 1.84%
  • Currently sitting at approximately $40 share price; sits approximately at the 50 and 200 day moving average
  • Basic Description: Logitech is a company designs and creates technological products designed to help consumers connect with gaming, music, video, computing, etc. Everyday technological accessories like computer mice, headphones, keyboards, speakers, etc. Their brands include 
  • Logitech, Jaybird, Ultimate Ears, ASTRO Gaming, and Blue Microphones
Positives
  • Consistent double digit revenue and income growth over the past three years
  • Listed brands all have niche and loyal consumers
  • Products are tried and true (Logitech computer mice, Blue microphones, Astro gaming products, Ultimate Ears Bluetooth speakers, Jaybird earbuds, etc.)
  • Video conferencing products also performing strongly
  • Management seems well-acquainted with products and welcomes competition in each of its product spaces
  • Well-diversified product line, most of which are performing extremely well 
  • Technology giants pushing streaming and gaming will also further Logitech’s business, creating a lower threshold and increased likelihood of using Logitech products
  • Chinese and international markets show strong growth, despite trade tensions 
  • Recently agreed to acquire Streamlabs, intends to dive further into gaming market and push the ability for gamers to use Twitch, YouTube, Mixer, and other streaming platforms to broadcast gameplay
  • StreamLabs is the service that 70% of twitch streamers use to receive donations, show content, and interact with audience
  • Constantly innovating, also just released MK470 Keyboard and Mouse Combo
  • Management seems very eager for the year ahead
  • Pays a dividend
  • Seems to be resilient to recession circumstances, customers will be able to afford essential technology products regardless of macroeconomic situations
Negatives
  • Faces lots of competition from Apple, Samsung, other technology giants
  • Gaming headphones business slumping
  • Valuations aren’t amazing, could be improve
Outlook (Buy)
  • Not an amazing stock in the short-term
  • However, with its fundamentals and proven management team, seems like a nice long-term play 
  • Giant technology companies might compete but tend to work with Logitech (i.e. Apple working with Logitech on iPad to makeshift laptop case)
  • Play on the rising gaming industry (following Fortnite’s rise in popularity, Logitech’s sales grew tremendously
​Check Out:
  • Annual Report (2019) and 10-Q (Q1 2019)
  • Most recent earnings call transcript (Q1 2019)
  • Become familiar with some of Logitech’s products (Jaybird’s reputation, popularity of Logitech computer mice, web conferencing tools used in companies)
  • Analyze Logitech’s international expansion
  • Determine management competence under Bracken P. Darrell (CEO) and Nathan Olmstead (CFO)
0 Comments

SEPtember 2019 feature

9/8/2019

0 Comments

 
Disclaimer: Please research these stocks yourself to get a full, confident understanding before investing! These features are merely a recommendation, not a promise of profit or an endorsement.
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General Info
  • Sector/Industry: Technology/Electronic Gaming and Multimedia
  • Forward PE: 20.96 (Industry Median: 24.51)
  • PE: 27.56 (Industry Median: 24.97)
  • Net Profit Margins: 14.94% (Industry Median: 8.05%)
  • Revenue CAGR: 33.51%
  • Income CAGR: 127.37%
  • Currently sitting at approximately $50 share price
  • Basic Description: Nintendo makes games and game systems especially for and including the Nintendo Switch while owning and monetizing Nintendo game character with merchandise. 
Positives
  • The Nintendo Switch, a portable game system, is extremely popular among millennials and Generation Z in the US, Japan, Europe, UK, Hong Kong, etc.
  • Nintendo characters and games have built long-lasting consumer loyalty in the company’s fanbase, creating a foreseeable future of success 
  • Valued only at around $45 billion dollars yet generates more than $170 billion in net cash flow, quite odd
  • Incredible double-digit revenue and income growth
  • Valuations are also quite mild, on the lower end
  • Margins are also high, efficient management and high demand from consumers
  • Can’t emphasize enough the odd ratio between market cap (low) and revenue and income generation (high)
  • Provides dividend to shareholders with forward dividend yield at 3.08%
  • Long-lasting history built into company and its creative games and console designs
  • Nintendo Switch games such as Super Smash Bros and the new Nintendo Switch Lite will continuously attract international customers
  • Accessories such as Amiibo figurines, controllers, merchandise, etc. also provide other sources of income
  • Millions and millions of games have already been sold, builds online community of gamers
  • Gaming is a trend that many investors don’t understand and don’t capitalize on, a relatively new industry to be introduced 
  • Assets to liabilities ratio is nearly 8:1
  • Differentiates itself from Xbox and Playstation systems by bringing portability and specific game franchises exclusive to Nintendo
Negatives
  • Many games still remain outside of Nintendo’s supported games
  • Nintendo consoles are less capable of supporting ultra-HD 4K gaming
  • Heavily based on Nintendo’s ability to create popular games that appeal to its established audience
  • Requires constant innovation to develop new game techniques and captivate the gaming world, like the most recent Super Smash Bros Ultimate that reunited various game franchises into one gaming experience
  • Heavy competition from Sony’s Playstation and Microsoft’s Xbox along with PC gaming
  • Delayed release of games can hurt share price (i.e. pushback of Animal Crossing to 2020)
Outlook (Buy)
  • The low market cap and incredible growth speaks for itself
  • Customer loyalty and game franchising spells out solid long-term investment
​Check Out:
  • Annual Report (2019) and 10-Q (Q2 2019)
  • Most recent earnings call transcript (Q2 2019)
  • Understand gaming industry and Nintendo game
  • Compare with advantages of Xbox and Microsoft
  • Analyze Nintendo's ability to expand internationally
  • Examine management competence (any problematic habits?)
0 Comments

AUGUST 2019 Feature

9/8/2019

1 Comment

 
​Disclaimer: Please research these stocks yourself to get a full, confident understanding before investing! These features are merely a recommendation, not a promise of profit or an endorsement.

Additional disclaimer:  Apologies for the delay; our team took a one-month summer break!
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General Info
  • Sector/Industry: Financial Services/Capital Markets
  • Forward PE: 8.2 (Industry Median: 18.52)
  • PE: 8.68 (Industry Median: 16.43)
  • Net Profit Margins: 30.12% (Industry Median: 20.94%)
  • Revenue CAGR: 2.05%
  • Income CAGR: 19.8%
  • Currently sitting at approximately $200 share price
  • Basic Description: Goldman Sachs is an investment banking and investment management company that specializes in providing its exclusive partners/clients with services most often surrounding mergers/acquisitions, IPOs, debt and equity underwriting, risk management, brokerage services, financial planning, etc.
Positives
  • Proven company with solid management team and client loyalty
  • Valued at approximately $73 billion despite net income generation of $10.5 billion in 2018, share price seems a bit low
  • Diversified revenue stream from four divisions of the company: Investment Banking, Institutional Client Services, Investing & Lending, and Investment Management
  • While revenue growth isn’t high, income growth has remained at double digits compounded annually over several years likely due to high profit margins
  • Double-digit return on equity reported in the most recent quarter
  • Management seemingly moving towards making its client/partner circle more exclusive, creating more demand to be working with GS 
  • Apple’s partnership with Goldman Sachs seems interesting, creates an exclusive product that could generate more public interest in financial services sector of Goldman
  • Goldman already dominates the investment banking sector, consistently underwrites large deals
  • Recently acquired United Capital to pair along with Ayco business in financial executive counseling and investment advisory business
  • Generating increasing public interest through Marcus, a commercial bank service offering competitive interest rates for customers
  • Currently holds over $90 billion in assets-liabilities, nearly $20 billion more than approximate market cap
Negatives
  • Dependent on solid economic growth to perform well in many components of its business
  • Over $840 billion in liabilities listed in balance sheet
  • Lack of history building consumer relationships outside of high capital clients and into public, unsure about possible performance penetrating commercial banking market and pulling public interest
  • Macroeconomic trends and tariff war could threaten GS’s success in the future
  • Requires constant innovation to stay afloat over any major economic shifts
  • Revenue growth declining, requires greater efficiency which can often be more and more difficult over the years
Outlook (Buy)
  • Simply based on proven results of management and long-standing success of business and secure relationships with consumers, GS is a relatively low-risk investment for the long-term
  • There may be fluctuations, but GS will likely be able to push through over several years and recover
​Check Out:
  • Annual Report (2018) and 10-Q (Q2 2019)
  • Most recent earnings call transcript (Q2 2019)
  • Analyze the investment banking competition (JPM, Blackstone, UBS, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, etc.)
  • Develop greater knowledge about macroeconomic environment 
  • Determine management competence under David Michael Solomon (CEO)
1 Comment
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    James Wei — Co-founder of InvestorPrep 
    Focus: Growth/Value Investing
    Outlook: 1-3 years

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